Lead, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

355
FXUS63 KUNR 251120
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
520 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions Wednesday; a Red Flag Warning
  is in effect for northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills, and
  southwestern South Dakota.

- Cold front arrives late Wednesday with gusty northwest winds and
  light showers. Most areas will remain dry.

- Trending mild and dry again Friday into next weekend with
  elevated fire weather conditions likely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Not much change to the previous forecast. Main changes were to
bump highs up tomorrow and winds tomorrow night with the cold
front. Expecting highs Wed into the 80s at many places on the
plains in the southwest half. Strong cold front will move through
later Wed night with winds expected to gust to around 50 mph at
some locations on the SD Plains (with isolated higher gusts
possible). Precip chances not that great tomorrow night into Thur
with low to mid chances, best across the northwest half. This will
be very similar to last Sat into Sun fropa and post frontal
precip.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Water vapor imagery shows weak, embedded shortwaves within the
flow across the Northern Plains and Rockies. Upper level clouds
continue to spill into the region given surge of mid- and upper-
level moisture. Surface front remains across NE WY through the NE
Panhandle and has been slow to surge northeastward. Given the
cloud cover and position of the front, temperatures have been slow
to warm, particularly across NW SD this afternoon.

Warm front will surge eastward later today and tonight, advecting
warmer air into the region tonight into Wednesday. Wednesday will be
the warmest day of the week with widespread 70s and low 80s across
the forecast area (upper 60s in the higher elevation of the Black
Hills). Critical fire weather conditions are likely across NE WY, the
Black Hills and foothills, and SW SD where RH will fall into the
teens with winds gusting 25 to 40 mph. Strongest winds and highest
confidence in critical fire weather conditions across southern
Campbell and Weston Counties in WY along with the southern Black
Hills into Fall River County in SD.

Cold front will push through the region late Wednesday into Thursday
with spotty light showers, mainly across the Black Hills and NW SD,
although precipitation amounts will be minimal. Elevated fire
weather conditions are expected across the western SD plains into
south-central Thursday with northwest winds gusting to 40 mph and RH
in the 20s and 30s.

Above average temperatures return Saturday through the weekend with
elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. Active southwesterly
flow looks to develop by mid-week next week with more widespread
precipitation chances returning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued At 520 AM MDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Expect gusty west winds this afternoon
across northeast WY into southwest SD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 1235 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
for northeastern Wyoming, the Black Hills and foothills, and
southwestern South Dakota. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected with relative humidity falling into the teens and winds
gusting 25 to 40 mph. The strongest winds and lowest RH will
overlap across southern Campbell County into southwestern South
Dakota. Winds will be lighter across the western South Dakota
plains, although occasional gusts greater than 25 mph are
expected during peak heating.

A cold front will push through the area from NW to SE after 2000,
shifting winds out of the northwest along with spotty light showers,
although most areas will remain dry. North-northwest winds with
gusts to 35-40 mph expected behind the front Thursday coupled with
RH in the 20s and 30s will support elevated fire weather conditions
across the plains.

Well above average temperatures return Saturday into early next
weekend with very dry air (RH 10-25%) with near-critical fire
weather conditions (at least) through Monday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for SDZ319>326-332-333.
WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this
     evening for WYZ314>318.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE
AVIATION...Wong
FIRE WEATHER...SE